Published: 29 Jun 2012. This is a biennial publication. Uses and Limitations of Population Projections, Population and Household Projections Sub-Council Areas, Projected Population of Scotland (2018-based), Projected population change for Scotland and the UK under variant projections: 2018-based, statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk. The projections use past trends in mortality, fertility, and migration to estimate what the population of an area might look like in the future. These suggest a highly mobile boat-using people, probably with a very low density of population. This section contains information about the limitations and uses of projections. It uses both estimated and projected population data. ... (2014) from 1981 to 2019. Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based) Principal and variant population projections by age and sex for council, NHS Board, Strategic Development Plan and National Park areas. The other papers from this group are also on this website. United Kingdom Demographics. This page contains population pyramids of Scotland showing the changing age and sex structure of the country over time. The dates of future publications will be announced on our Future Publications page. Whilst there are no changes to Scotland’s projected population, this correction has affected the cross-UK and European comparisons. The latest set of prison population projections suggest that the daily prison population in Scotland will increase from an annual average of 8,300 in 2012-13 to 9,500 by 2020-21 . Population projections. 2. The sample size for Scotland for the IPS is small, so estimates derived from this survey are subject to large sampling and … The demographic history of Scotland includes all aspects of population history in what is now Scotland. Population Projections. The population of Scotland has been increasing every decade since 1970’s from that point. ... except for Scotland. Statistical bulletin for the UK population projections, as well as open data at UK and Scotland level. Figures published by National Records of Scotland. More information on the error can be found on the ONS website. High population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics. The figures project that there will be 240,000 more pensioners over the next 25 years, an increase of 23.2%, while the working age population reduces by 7,000 people. Population projections have limitations. They are based on assumptions of future levels of births, deaths and migration. They are based on the latest mid-2016 population estimates and provide an indication of the future population size and age structure of Scottish areas based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. Corrections have been made to the infographic (page 4), section 3 (pages 15-17) and section 5 (pages 20-21) of the publication. Statistical bulletin for the UK population projections, as well as open data at UK and Scotland level. Population projections for Scotland using different assumptions of future EU migration. The population estimates for Scotland, council areas and health board areas are published ten months after this date. Some areas are projected to increase in size while others to decrease. But this pattern is not to be experienced in all areas of Scotland. Principal projection - Great Britain population in age groups. The 50% future EU migration variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex. The latest set of 2018-based population projections for Scotland (Chart 1) produced by National Records of Scotland show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.40 million in 2016 to 5.58 million in 2043. Scotland has historically experienced higher mortality rates at all but the very youngest ages, compared with the UK … Statisitcs Customer Services telephone: (0131) 314 4299 Figures published today by the National Records of Scotland provide the latest mid-2018 population estimates for the 6,976 small areas of Scotland, known as data zones. 3. 50% future EU migration variant - UK population in age groups. After the slight dip observed last year, the prison population has increased by 4 per cent to an annual daily average of 8,178 for 2011-12. Back to table of contents. There is also information on the change between the most recent projection and the previous set in the publications themselves. This has now been changed to the correct figure of 5.96 million. The projected population of Scotland on 30 June 2043 is: 5,574,800 This is from the Projected Population of Scotland (2018-based) publication. 3. The latest set of prison population projections suggest that the daily prison population in Scotland will increase from an annual average of 8,300 in 2012-13 to 9,500 by 2020-21. This year it includes prison population projections to 2020-21 which were previously published separately, as … Scotland: The 2018-based projections show the total population of Scotland will increase from 5,44 million in 2018 to 5,54 million by 2043 and continue to rise into the future.Along with the projected rise in population is the projected increase in the number of people of pensionable age, … Principal projection The population of Scotland is projected to rise by 9 per cent over the next 25 years, from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.78 million by 2037, and continue to rise into the future. All content is available under the Open Government Licence v3.0, except where otherwise stated. This document is available in: Summary of projections for Northern Ireland Release | Released 21 October 2019 In … Population estimates are broken down by single year ages and by sex, and gives totals for both. In December 2020, an estimated 8.9% of the population in Scotland would have tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from a blood sample (95% confidence interval: 7.2% to 10.9%). Detailed Datasets by age and sex: Key Findings. Data and analysis can be found in this section. Statistical Service in Scotland. National Records of Scotland (NRS) normally release the mid-year (30 June) population estimates in April of the following year, for the following geographies: ... data on asylum seekers and the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for international migration. The fastest growing areas are in the East surrounding the City … E-mail: statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk, For media enquiries, please contact communications@nrscotland.gov.uk. United Kingdom Population Projections. Population projections for Glasgow by age group, 2018 - 2043 Click on graph to expand. These are mostly urban areas, located in the central belt. Archive. Note: Health and Social Care … Projected population change varies across Scotland. E-mail: statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk, For media enquiries, please contact communications@nrscotland.gov.uk. Not National Statistics. The United Kingdom's population is expected to continue its rise throughout the 21st century. Please note, a correction has been issued to the Key Findings Infographic for the national population projections. This publication shows data up to 2011-12 on Scottish prison population levels and characteristics, receptions to/liberations from Scottish prisons, and international comparisons. This section also includes historical data back to 2001 and variant population projections for Scotland. ... National Records of Scotland (NRS) have published a summary of the projections for Scotland. Mid-year population estimates at Scotland and council level, and Health Board areas are published by NRS in April every year. Small Area Population Estimates, mid-2018. The small area population estimates are published fourteen months after this date. Population Estimates. Stats at a Glance Historical Sub-National Population Projections data Includes historical data back to 2000 and revised 1994-based projections at council and NHS Board area level and historical Population and Household … Population projections provide statistics on potential future population levels of the UK and its constituent countries by age and sex. Population Projections. Charts. An error has been found in the 2018-based national population projections (NPP), involving the incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England. The figures project that there will be 240,000 more pensioners over the next 25 years, an increase of 23.2%, while the working age population reduces by 7,000 people. The paper, PPWG (06) 09 - Accuracy of the Sub-National Population Projections for Scotland (available on this website) looking at the accuracy of the projections was published in 2006. Population estimates for all geography types in Scotland: Data Zone (2011) from 2001 to 2019. Longer-term projections for up to 70 years ahead show a decrease to 5.38 million by 2086. It is forecast that while the … Data and analysis can be found in this section. There was a modest reduction in the population of the country during the 1970’s and 1990’s. ... Glasgow in Scotland has a population of 598,830. Population estimates and projections for Scotland This is one of a series of reports prepared under the provisions of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 . These charts will be particularly useful for users who are interested in the changing demographics of Scotland. Please get in touch if you need any further information, or have any suggestions for improvement. These population projections have been developed in collaboration with the National Records of Scotland (NRS) with support from the Universities of Edinburgh and Manchester. Population projections and depopulation across Scotland NRS have published the latest Population Projections for Scottish Areas. In its 2011 review the GROS predicted that Scotland's population would rise by 10% to 5.76 million by 2035 and to 6.2m by 2085. Scots are expected to live longer but inward migration will be essential to ensure the country’s population continues to grow, according to national statistics published today. All resources include Scotland figures for the relevant time period. It should be noted that the projections are based on past trends and do not explicitly model the potential impact of future changes in policy or practice on the prison population. ISBN: 9781780459189. Please get in touch if you need any further information, or have any suggestions for improvement. Scots are expected to live longer but inward migration will be essential to ensure the country’s population continues to grow, according to national statistics published today. statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk, National population projections by sex and age, with UK and European comparisons. A visualisation comparing projection variants for Scotland and the UK is available on the Infographics and Visualisations page of this website: Projected population change for Scotland and the UK under variant projections: 2018-based. Future projections of the resident population of Scotland are produced by National Records of Scotland (NRS), usually every two years, for the following geographies: Scotland; NHS Board (Health Board) Council Area (Local Authority) Projections for small areas of Scotland below council area level are not produced by NRS, except for national parks. The projected population of Scotland in 2041 according to the high migration variant was previously labelled as 5.99 million. The population of the country dropped from 5.229 Million in the year 1971 to 5.062 Million in 2001.Looking back last eight years, the population growth of Scotland is slow but consistent ranging from 0.09% to 0.93% adding 5,000 to 50,000 people to the overall population. Population estimates for all 14 health board (2019) in Scotland from 1981 to 2019. The major feature of the age-related projections is that Glasgow’s population - in line with the rest of Scotland - is predicted to become older. Intermediate Zone (2011) from 2001 to 2019. Driven by modest natural increase and positive net immigration, the population will reach 77 million by 2050, according to the ONS projections. Prison statistics and population projections Scotland: 2011-12. Population Pyramids of Scotland showing the changing age and sex structure of the country over time. Scotland may have been first occupied in the last interglacial period (130,000–70,000 BC), but the earliest surviving archaeological evidence of human settlement is of Mesolithic hunter-gatherer encampments. Statisitcs Customer Services telephone: (0131) 314 4299 An Infographic and Interactive data visualisation are available on the Infographics and Visualisations page of this website. The Act gives the Statistics Authority power to re-assess whether the Code of Practice for Official Statistics continues to be complied with in relation to official statistics already designated as National Statistics. Projections. Figure 1: Projected Population Change by Age Group for the Outer Hebrides, 2018 and 2028. Based on data from the last Census taken in … Over half of Scotland’s councils (18 out of 32) are projected to increase by mid-2028. Small area population estimates at data zone and intermediate zone levels, Scottish … It is estimated that an average of 398,000 people … All content is available under the Open Government Licence v3.0, except where otherwise stated. ONS Comparable Datasets. Population projections for Scotland using different assumptions of future EU migration. Uses and Limitations of Population Projections Population Pyramids of Scotland showing the changing age and sex structure of the country over time. Based on 2011 census data. The National Records of Scotland forecasts that Glasgow’s population will grow by 6% over the next 25 years, an increase of 36,000. 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